Commit Forecast
What is a Commit Forecast?
A commit forecast is the subset of sales pipeline representing deals sales representatives and managers have explicitly categorized as "Commit" in CRM systems—the highest-confidence forecast category indicating strong conviction these opportunities will close within the current forecast period, typically requiring documented evidence of late-stage progression like signed contracts, confirmed budgets, or active procurement processes. Unlike broader pipeline forecasts that include early-stage opportunities with probabilistic weighting, commit forecasts represent deals sales leadership publicly stakes their credibility on delivering, directly informing board reporting, investor guidance, operational planning, and quota attainment projections.
In standard sales forecast hierarchies, organizations use multiple confidence tiers: Pipeline (early opportunities, 10-30% probability), Best Case (possible deals, 50-70% probability), Commit (high confidence, 80-95% probability), and Closed (already won). The Commit category sits just below Closed, representing deals where sales professionals have sufficient visibility and validation to guarantee closure barring extraordinary circumstances. This designation carries organizational weight—commit forecasts drive hiring decisions, expense approvals, and growth investments because leadership expects 85-95% of committed deals to materialize as actual bookings.
Commit forecasts serve as the operational truth for revenue planning. When a VP Sales tells the CFO "We've committed $4.2M for Q2," that figure becomes the planning basis for evaluating whether the quarter will hit target, where resources should deploy, and whether aggressive investments are justified. According to research from Gartner, organizations with disciplined commit forecast management achieve 30% lower revenue variance and 2.1x higher forecast accuracy compared to companies treating all pipeline equally, enabling more confident strategic decisions.
Key Takeaways
Highest-Confidence Pipeline Subset: Represents deals sales teams explicitly commit to delivering, requiring documented late-stage validation and manager approval versus probabilistic pipeline estimates
Operational Planning Foundation: Directly informs board reporting, investor guidance, hiring decisions, and expense approvals because leadership expects 85-95% materialization rates
Credibility Stake: Sales reps and managers personally vouch for commit forecast accuracy, making it a judgment and accountability metric versus statistical probability
Stringent Qualification Gates: Deals enter commit category only after meeting strict criteria (signed contracts, confirmed budgets, active procurement) enforced through CRM validation and manager review
Rolling Accuracy Measurement: Organizations track commit accuracy (percentage of commits that close) as primary forecasting reliability metric, driving process improvements and coaching
How It Works
Commit forecasting follows a disciplined process that defines qualification criteria, validates deal readiness, aggregates team forecasts, and tracks accuracy over time:
Commit Category Criteria Definition
Organizations establish clear, non-negotiable criteria for what qualifies an opportunity for Commit category—the highest bar in the forecast hierarchy:
Typical Commit Qualification Requirements:
- Deal stage: Final negotiation or contract review (90%+ CRM probability)
- Contract status: Signed and pending legal/procurement OR final draft with buyer agreement
- Economic buyer: Identified, engaged, and verbally confirmed intent to proceed
- Budget: Formally allocated and approved, not just "anticipated"
- Timeline: Decision/close date within current forecast period (month or quarter)
- Blockers: All technical objections, security reviews, and stakeholder concerns resolved
- Competition: No active competitive evaluation or clear competitive advantage established
- Legal/procurement: Process initiated with documented timeline
These criteria prevent premature commit categorization—deals cannot reach Commit status simply because reps "feel confident" without tangible late-stage validation. Many organizations implement CRM required fields that must be populated before Commit categorization is allowed, forcing documentation of contract stage, procurement status, and buyer confirmation.
Manager Review and Approval Process
Individual reps propose deals for Commit category, but manager validation provides critical oversight:
Weekly Forecast Review Process:
1. Rep Submission: Sellers identify deals they want to commit for current period
2. Evidence Review: Managers examine supporting documentation (emails, contract status, procurement timeline)
3. Challenge Questions: "What evidence do you have they'll close this month?" "What could prevent this from closing?" "Have you confirmed with legal their timeline?"
4. Approval/Rejection: Manager approves commit categorization or pushes back requiring more validation
5. Risk Documentation: For approved commits, document known risks and mitigation plans
Manager oversight prevents sandbagging (over-conservative commits to guarantee attainment) and over-optimism (committing deals without proper validation). This review process ensures commit forecasts represent collective team judgment, not individual rep optimism or pessimism.
Aggregated Commit Forecast Compilation
After individual deal validation, commit forecasts aggregate up organizational hierarchy:
Aggregation Levels:
- Rep Level: Individual seller's personal commit forecast (sum of deals they've committed)
- Manager/Team Level: Combined commits from all reps reporting to a manager
- Regional Level: Aggregated commits across geographic territories or market segments
- Company-Wide: Total organizational commit forecast rolling up to executive leadership
Each level reviews the aggregated forecast for reasonableness: Does the commit forecast represent 70-80% of quota (healthy confidence) or 45% (concerning under-commitment)? Are commits evenly distributed through the quarter or back-loaded (timing risk)? Do commit amounts align with historical patterns and growth expectations?
Period-End Reconciliation and Accuracy Tracking
When the forecast period ends, revenue operations reconciles commit forecast against actual outcomes:
Outcome Categories:
- Won as Committed: Deal closed within period at committed value (accuracy success)
- Partial Win: Deal closed at significantly reduced value or scope (partial accuracy)
- Pushed: Deal didn't close but moved to next period (timing miss)
- Lost: Deal closed-lost, competitor won, or no decision (complete miss)
Commit accuracy gets calculated as (Deals Won as Committed / Total Committed Deals) × 100, tracked at individual, team, and company levels. This accuracy measurement feeds back into process improvement: If accuracy falls below 85%, teams investigate why commits are missing (poor qualification? external factors? sandbagging?) and adjust criteria or manager scrutiny accordingly.
Dynamic Commit Management Throughout Period
Commit forecasts aren't static—they evolve as deals progress and circumstances change:
Intra-Period Updates:
- Additions: New deals reaching commit-stage late in period (tracked separately as "late commits")
- Removals: Previously committed deals encountering unexpected delays or losses (risk flagging)
- Value Changes: Committed deal scope expanding or contracting (commit forecast adjustment)
- Timing Shifts: Deal close date moving within current period (still counts toward commit)
Organizations debate whether to lock commit forecasts at period start (preventing gaming) or allow dynamic updates (reflecting reality). Most use hybrid approach: initial commit snapshot captured for accuracy measurement, but working commit forecast updates continuously for operational visibility, with all changes logged and reviewed in weekly forecast calls.
Key Features
Binary Confidence Designation: Deals are either Commit (publicly forecasted to close) or not Commit (still uncertain), eliminating ambiguous probability gradations for highest-confidence tier
Evidence-Based Validation: Requires documented proof of late-stage progression (signed contracts, confirmed procurement) rather than subjective confidence or gut feel
Hierarchical Aggregation: Rolls up from individual rep commits through managers, regions, and company levels enabling multi-level forecast visibility
Accountability Attribution: Explicitly ties commits to individual reps and approving managers, creating clear ownership for forecast accuracy
Historical Tracking: Maintains period-over-period commit forecast history enabling trend analysis, accuracy improvement, and baseline comparison
Use Cases
Enterprise Sales Quarterly Business Reviews
A B2B enterprise software company with 6-9 month sales cycles uses commit forecasts as the cornerstone of quarterly business reviews (QBRs) with board and executive leadership.
Quarterly Commit Forecast Process:
- Week 1 of Quarter: Initial commit forecast captured (early committed deals)
- Weekly Forecast Calls: Review all commits, add newly qualified deals, remove at-risk deals
- Mid-Quarter Update: Refresh commit forecast with added late-stage opportunities
- Week 12: Final commit forecast vs. actual closed comparison for accuracy assessment
Q2 2024 Commit Forecast Example:
- Initial Commit (Week 1): $12.4M across 28 deals
- Mid-Quarter Update (Week 6): $14.8M across 34 deals (6 new commits added)
- Final Commit (Week 12): $15.2M across 36 deals (2 additional late commits)
- Actual Closed: $14.1M across 33 deals
- Commit Accuracy: 92% (33 of 36 deals closed), 93% value accuracy
QBR Presentation Insights:
- Strong 92% commit accuracy validates forecasting discipline and pipeline visibility
- $14.1M actual vs. $16M quota represents 88% attainment (gap explained by 3 pushed deals)
- Commit forecast as percentage of quota: 95% (14.8M commit / 16M quota at mid-quarter)
- Three missed commits analyzed: 1 competitive loss, 2 procurement delays pushing to Q3
- Action plan: Address procurement timeline validation in commit criteria
Board Confidence: High commit accuracy and transparent miss analysis demonstrated operational control, enabling board approval for $3M incremental hiring investment to support pipeline growth.
Inside Sales Capacity Planning
A high-velocity inside sales organization with 30-45 day sales cycles uses commit forecasts for real-time capacity and resource allocation decisions.
Monthly Commit Forecast Cadence:
- Day 1-7: Initial monthly commit forecast built from late-stage pipeline
- Weekly Reviews (Days 7, 14, 21): Update commits, add newly qualified deals, assess trajectory
- Day 25-30: Final push on committed deals, escalation for at-risk commits
- Day 30: Commit vs. actual reconciliation, accuracy calculation
Representative Monthly Commit Forecast (April):
- Week 1 Commit: $420K (42 deals, 14 reps averaging 3 commits each)
- Week 2 Update: $485K (48 deals, 6 new commits added as deals progressed)
- Week 3 Update: $510K (51 deals, 3 more additions)
- Week 4 Final: $505K (50 deals, 1 removed due to unexpected delay)
- Month-End Actual: $467K (46 deals closed)
- Commit Accuracy: 92% deal count, 92% value
Capacity Planning Applications:
- Early Warning: Week 2 commit of $485K vs. $550K target flagged $65K gap, triggering outbound prospecting acceleration
- Resource Allocation: Commits concentrated in 10 reps, identified 4 reps needing pipeline support
- Deal Coaching: 4 at-risk commits received manager intervention, 3 successfully closed
- Sandbagging Detection: 2 reps with 100% commit accuracy but significant upside closes not committed (coaching on appropriate confidence)
Results: Commit forecast visibility enabled proactive gap-closing actions (accelerated prospecting, manager deal support) that recovered $35K of the initial $65K gap, finishing month at 85% attainment vs. projected 78% without intervention.
Investor Guidance and Financial Planning
A growth-stage SaaS company preparing for IPO uses commit forecasts to provide reliable quarterly guidance to investors, building credibility through consistent forecast accuracy.
Quarterly Guidance Process:
- 6 Weeks Before Quarter End: Initial next-quarter commit forecast developed
- Quarter Close: Finalize current quarter, validate next quarter commit projection
- Investor Call: Provide Q+1 revenue guidance based on commit forecast + historical upside
- Quarterly Delivery: Actual results vs. guided range reported
Q4 2024 Guidance Example (Provided October 15):
- Q4 Commit Forecast: $8.2M (validated through manager reviews)
- Historical Q4 Upside: Average 8-12% beyond commit (deals closing not committed)
- Guidance Range Provided: $8.8M - $9.2M (commit + expected upside)
- Actual Q4 Result: $9.0M (within guided range)
- Commit Accuracy: 89% (strong reliability)
Multi-Quarter Track Record:
- Q1 2024: Guided $7.0-7.4M, Actual $7.2M (hit)
- Q2 2024: Guided $7.5-7.9M, Actual $7.8M (hit)
- Q3 2024: Guided $8.0-8.4M, Actual $8.3M (hit)
- Q4 2024: Guided $8.8-9.2M, Actual $9.0M (hit)
- 4-Quarter Accuracy: 100% within guided range
Investor Confidence Impact:
Consistent guidance achievement based on disciplined commit forecasting established management credibility. In IPO roadshow, investors cited forecast reliability as evidence of operational maturity, contributing to successful pricing at upper end of range.
Financial Planning Benefit: CFO uses commit forecast as conservative planning basis (assumes 85% commit achievement) for expense approvals, enabling confident investment decisions while maintaining cash runway buffers.
Implementation Example
Below is a commit forecast tracking framework showing how an enterprise sales team manages quarterly commits:
Weekly Commit Forecast Progression (Q2 2024)
Week | Commit Deals | Commit Value | New Adds | Removed | Closed Won | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 22 | $8,400K | - | - | 0 | Baseline commit captured |
Week 2 | 24 | $9,100K | 3 | (1) | 1 ($380K) | Early close, 2 new qualifiers |
Week 4 | 26 | $9,850K | 4 | (2) | 4 ($1,520K) | Building momentum, 2 pushed |
Week 6 | 28 | $10,400K | 5 | (3) | 8 ($3,040K) | Mid-quarter strong, 3 delays |
Week 8 | 25 | $10,100K | 2 | (5) | 13 ($5,230K) | 5 pushed to Q3, good progress |
Week 10 | 23 | $9,950K | 1 | (3) | 18 ($7,180K) | Late-stage slippage concern |
Week 12 | 20 | $9,800K | 0 | (3) | 20 ($8,920K) | Final push closed all remaining |
Quarter-End Summary:
- Initial Commit (Week 1): $8,400K across 22 deals
- Peak Commit (Week 6): $10,400K across 28 deals (healthy additions mid-quarter)
- Final Commit (Week 12): $9,800K across 20 deals
- Actual Closed: $8,920K across 20 deals
- Commit Accuracy: 91% value accuracy (20 of 20 remaining commits closed)
- Note: 8 deals removed from commit throughout quarter (pushed to Q3), demonstrating honest forecast management
Rep-Level Commit Forecast Detail
Rep | Week 1 Commit | Mid-Q Adds | Removed | Final Commit | Actual Closed | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sarah T. | $1,200K (3 deals) | +$400K (1) | -$0 | $1,600K (4) | $1,600K (4) | 100% |
Michael R. | $900K (2 deals) | +$550K (2) | -$450K (1) | $1,000K (3) | $1,000K (3) | 100% |
David L. | $1,400K (4 deals) | +$300K (1) | -$0 | $1,700K (5) | $1,550K (4) | 91% (1 pushed) |
Jennifer K. | $800K (2 deals) | +$200K (1) | -$0 | $1,000K (3) | $1,000K (3) | 100% |
Rachel P. | $1,100K (3 deals) | +$0 | -$300K (1) | $800K (2) | $800K (2) | 100% |
James T. | $700K (2 deals) | +$500K (2) | -$700K (2) | $500K (2) | $320K (1) | 64% (1 lost) |
Manager Analysis:
- Elite Performers (Sarah, Michael, Jennifer, Rachel): 100% commit accuracy, appropriate additions/removals
- Strong Performer (David): 91% accuracy, one legitimate push (procurement delay)
- Needs Improvement (James): 64% accuracy, both initial commits fell out, poor qualification
- Coaching Action: Work with James on commit criteria validation, manager pre-approval required
Commit Forecast Waterfall Analysis
Interpretation:
- Healthy mid-quarter growth from $8.4M to $10.4M (pipeline converting to commit)
- Late-quarter removals ($1.5M pushed) concerning but managed honestly
- Final commit accuracy 100% (all remaining commits closed) validates discipline
- Total quarter closed $8.9M vs. $10.5M quota (85% attainment)
Commit Forecast vs. Quota Coverage
Metric | Week 1 | Week 6 | Week 12 | Target Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quota | $10,500K | $10,500K | $10,500K | - |
Commit Forecast | $8,400K | $10,400K | $8,920K | - |
Commit Coverage % | 80% | 99% | 85% | 90-95% ideal |
Expected Upside | ~$1,000K | ~$1,200K | ~$1,000K | 10-12% historical |
Projected Total | $9,400K | $11,600K | $9,920K | >$10,500K |
Status Assessment:
- Week 1: 80% commit coverage concerning but typical for quarter start
- Week 6: 99% coverage excellent, projected total $11.6M above quota
- Week 12: 85% coverage below ideal, projected $9.9M below quota (gap)
- Action: Late-quarter slippage created attainment risk, flagged for leadership
Related Terms
Commit Accuracy: Metric measuring percentage of committed deals that actually close, validating forecast reliability
Sales Qualified Lead: Early-stage qualification that eventually progresses to commit-stage opportunities
Revenue Intelligence: Analytics discipline incorporating commit forecast analysis for pipeline insights
Lead Scoring: Qualification methodology that influences which opportunities reach commit stage
Marketing Qualified Lead: Marketing-qualified prospects that progress through pipeline to eventual commit status
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a commit forecast?
Quick Answer: A commit forecast is the subset of sales pipeline representing deals sales teams explicitly commit to closing within the forecast period, serving as the highest-confidence revenue projection for operational planning.
A commit forecast includes only opportunities sales representatives and managers have categorized as "Commit" in CRM systems—the highest confidence tier requiring documented late-stage validation like signed contracts, confirmed budgets, or active procurement. Unlike probabilistic pipeline forecasts that weight all opportunities by likelihood, commit forecasts represent deals sales leadership publicly stakes their credibility on delivering, directly informing board reporting, financial planning, and investment decisions because organizations expect 85-95% of committed deals to actually close.
What criteria should qualify a deal for commit status?
Quick Answer: Deals must reach final negotiation with signed contracts or written agreements, confirmed budgets, engaged economic buyers, and close dates within the current period—all documented in CRM with manager approval.
Best practice commit criteria include: (1) Deal stage in final negotiation or contract review (90%+ probability), (2) Signed contract pending legal/procurement OR written agreement with buyer confirmation, (3) Identified and engaged economic buyer who verbally confirmed intent, (4) Budget formally allocated and approved, not anticipated, (5) Close date within current forecast period, (6) All technical objections and security reviews resolved, (7) No active competitive threats or clear competitive advantage. These criteria should be enforced through CRM required fields and manager approval in weekly forecast reviews, preventing premature commit categorization based solely on rep confidence.
How is commit forecast different from best case forecast?
Quick Answer: Commit forecast includes only highest-confidence deals sales teams guarantee will close (85-95% probability), while best case forecast includes commits plus moderately-confident opportunities that could close (60-70% probability).
In standard forecast hierarchies, best case represents the optimistic scenario including both high-confidence commits and medium-confidence "possible" deals—essentially "everything that could close if circumstances align favorably." Commit forecast is more conservative, including only deals where sales teams have sufficient validation to publicly guarantee closure. For example, a team might have $10M commit forecast and $14M best case forecast—the $4M delta represents deals that might close but lack sufficient certainty for operational planning. Organizations rely on commit forecasts for conservative planning while tracking best case for upside potential assessment.
Should we allow commit forecast changes during the period?
Yes, but maintain an immutable baseline snapshot at period start for accuracy measurement. Use a hybrid approach: (1) Capture initial commit forecast snapshot on Day 1 as the baseline for calculating commit accuracy, (2) Allow dynamic updates throughout the period for operational visibility (adding newly qualified deals, removing at-risk deals), (3) Log all changes with timestamps and justifications, (4) Review changes in weekly forecast calls requiring manager approval. This enables honest forecast management reflecting reality (deals do emerge or slip unexpectedly) while maintaining accountability through accuracy measurement against the baseline. Completely locking commits prevents realistic updates; allowing unlimited changes without tracking enables gaming.
What percentage of quota should commit forecast represent?
Healthy commit forecasts typically represent 75-90% of period quota at mid-period, with expected upside deals (not committed but likely to close) bridging to 100%+ projected total. If commit forecast exceeds 95% of quota, investigate potential sandbagging (over-conservative commits). If commit forecast is below 70% of quota at mid-period, there's significant attainment risk requiring urgent pipeline acceleration. Ideal patterns: start period at 60-70% commit coverage (early committed deals), build to 80-90% by mid-period (pipeline converting to commits), finish at 85-95% of actual closes coming from committed deals with 10-15% upside surprises from uncommitted closes.
Conclusion
Commit forecasts represent the operational foundation of reliable revenue planning, serving as the highest-confidence pipeline subset that sales leadership publicly stakes their credibility on delivering. By establishing stringent qualification criteria, enforcing manager validation, and tracking accuracy over time, organizations transform sales forecasting from subjective guesswork into disciplined, evidence-based projections that enable confident board reporting, investor guidance, and strategic planning. High commit accuracy (85-95% of committed deals closing) validates forecasting discipline and creates organizational trust that committed revenue will materialize as predicted.
For sales leadership, commit forecasts provide the critical visibility needed to assess quarterly attainment likelihood, identify gaps requiring intervention, and demonstrate operational control to executives and boards. Revenue operations teams use commit forecast evolution (week-over-week additions and removals) as real-time health indicators, detecting concerning trends like late-quarter slippage or insufficient pipeline conversion before they impact results. Finance organizations rely on commit forecasts for conservative expense planning and investment decisions, knowing that 85-90% of committed revenue will deliver versus treating all pipeline probabilistically.
As B2B sales organizations scale and face increasing pressure for predictable growth, commit forecast discipline becomes non-negotiable for operational maturity. Companies with rigorous commit management—clear criteria, manager oversight, honest mid-period adjustments, and accuracy accountability—achieve 30% lower revenue variance and command higher valuations due to demonstrated predictability. The cultural commitment to honest commit forecasting, where reps and managers truthfully categorize deals rather than gaming the system through sandbagging or over-optimism, separates high-performing revenue organizations from those perpetually surprised by quarterly results.
Related concepts worth exploring include Commit Accuracy for measuring forecast reliability and Revenue Intelligence for comprehensive pipeline analytics incorporating commit insights.
Last Updated: January 18, 2026
